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Professor John Carlin
Professor John Carlin has a national and international reputation in biostatistics, the science of developing and applying statistical methods to problems in health and medical research. This field is increasingly recognised as fundamental to modern research because of rapidly increasing technological capacity to accumulate and manipulate complex numerical data, in the face of which deep understanding of the theory and application of statistical methods has become ever more important.
After completing a PhD in Statistics at Harvard University, John began a career in medical and public health research. As Director of the Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit at Murdoch Childrens, he has played a leading role developing one of Australia's leading biostatistical centres. This unit has developed a broad program of work encompassing basic training in clinical research methods, collaborative contributions to a wide range of clinical and population health research, with a growing focus on paediatric clinical trials and its own methodological research program.
In addition to his role within Murdoch Childrens, Professor Carlin has a professorial appointment in the Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, University of Melbourne. His international standing in the core discipline of statistics is attested by co-authorship of an influential graduate-level textbook with colleagues from Harvard University (Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd edition 2014). He has over 300 scientific publications across a wide range of topics in statistical methodology and in numerous substantive clinical and public health areas.
- Head of Data Science, Director of The Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit (CEBU), Murdoch Childrens Research Institute
- Honorary Professorial Fellow, Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne
- Professor, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne
2014: Invited chapter, Handbook of Missing Data, Chapman & Hall
Invited guest lecturer on numerous occasions
Professor Carlin has maintained an ongoing program of research on statistical methods for the analysis of complex longitudinal data, including a particular focus over the past decade on methods for dealing with missing data using the method of multiple imputation. This work has been funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) since the mid-1990's, and as well as being published widely (journals such as Statistics in Medicine , Biostatistics, American Journal of Epidemiology) has contributed to the effective analysis of many important studies in adolescent health research and other areas. Other areas of current methodological research interest include methods for cluster-randomised and "stepped wedge" trials, and the self-controlled case-series method for vaccine safety studies.
Complementing his methodological work, Professor Carlin has made fundamental contributions as a collaborator in numerous areas of child and adolescent health, including:
- rotavirus disease and vaccines
- natural history and clinical management of cystic fibrosis
- neonatal intensive care
- value of clinical signs for predicting severe illness in young infants in resource-poor settings
- epidemiology of childhood cardiomyopathy
- vaccines and vaccine-preventable childhood diseases
- epidemiology of asthma and other allergic diseases
- behavioural and mental health problems of adolescence and young adulthood
- childhood obesity: risk factors, natural history, comorbidities
- early life influences on health and development
- The Victorian Centre for Biostatistics: building capacity in a core discipline of public health
- Statistical methods for handling missing data in large epidemiological studies, using multiple imputation
- Design and analysis of multi-period cluster-randomised trials
- Child Health CheckPoint
- Barwon Infant Study
Lee KJ, Carlin JB. Multiple imputation for missing data: fully conditional specification versus multivariate normal imputation. Am J Epidemiol. 2010; 171:624-632.
White IR, Carlin JB. Bias and efficiency of multiple imputation compared with complete-case analysis for missing covariate values. Stat Med. 2010; 29:2920-2931.
Lowe AJ, Carlin JB, Bennett CM, Hosking CS, Allen KJ, Robertson CF, Axelrad C, Abramson MJ, Hill DJ, Dharmage SC. Paracetamol use in early life and asthma: prospective birth cohort study. BMJ. 2010; 341:c4616
Wainwright CE, Vidmar S, Armstrong DS, Byrnes CA, Carlin JB, Cheney J, Cooper PJ, Grimwood K, Moodie M, Robertson CF, Tiddens HA. Effect of Bronchoalveolar Lavage–Directed Therapy on Pseudomonas aeruginosa Infection and Structural Lung Injury in Children With Cystic Fibrosis: A Randomized Trial. JAMA. 2011; 306:163-171.
Moran P, Coffey C, Romaniuk H, Olsson C, Borschmann R, Carlin JB, Patton GC. The natural history of self-harm from adolescence to young adulthood: A population-based cohort study. Lancet. 2012; 379:236-243.
Lee KJ, Galati JC, Simpson JA, Carlin JB. Comparison of methods for imputing ordinal data using multivariate normal imputation: a case study of non-linear effects in a large cohort study. Stat Med. 2012; 31:4164-4174.
Seaman S, Galati JC, Jackson D, Carlin JB. What is meant by 'Missing at Random'? Statistical Science. 2013; 28:257-268.
Carlin JB, Macartney K, Lee KJ, Quinn HE, Buttery J, Lopert R, Bines J, McIntyre P. Intussusception risk and disease prevention associated with rotavirus vaccines in Australia's national immunisation program. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2013; 57:1427-1434.
Lee KJ and Carlin JB. Fractional polynomial adjustment for time-varying covariates in a self-controlled case series analysis. Stats in Med. 2013; DOI: 10.1002/sim.5911.
Patton GC, Coffey C, Romaniuk H, Mackinnon A, Carlin JB, Degenhardt L, Olsson CA, Moran P. The prognosis of common mental disorders in adolescents: a 14-year prospective cohort study. Lancet. 2014; doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(13)62116-9 .